报告主题：考虑温度依赖潜伏期的疟疾传播模型
报告人：赵晓强 教授 （加拿大纽芬兰纪念大学）
报告时间：2019 年 10 月 31 日（周四）14:00
报告地点：校本部 G507
邀请人：许新建
报告摘要： Malaria is an infectious disease caused by Plasmodium parasites and is transmitted among humans by female Anopheles mosquitoes. Climate factors have significant impact on both mosquito life cycle and parasite development. To consider the temperature sensitivity of the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of malaria parasites, we formulate a delay differential equations model with a periodic time delay. We derive the basic reproduction ratio R0 and establish a threshold type result on the global dynamics in terms of R0. More precisely, we show that the unique disease-free periodic solution is globally asymptotically stable if R0<1 , and the model system admits a unique positive periodic solution which is globally asymptotically stable if r0>1. Numerically, we parameterize the model with data from Maputo Province, Mozambique and simulate the long term behavior of solutions. The simulation result is consistent with the obtained analytic result. In addition, we find that using the time-averaged EIP may underestimate the basic reproduction ratio.
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